Weekly COVID-19 Round-up - 10/21/21
River City Data No. 53
After a few weeks of our trends pointing downward, we see just the slightest bit of divergence. At the state level, everything continues to look like an improvement. However, at the county level, we have what could be a momentary blip in our trends or could be a resurgence in new cases. As we come into the end of October, these are the warning signs I am looking for in our metrics. My concern is that our vaccination environment has not improved enough to head off yet another wave of new cases this winter. - Chris
COVID-19 by the Numbers
Total cases in MO: 861,355 (+7,373 from last Thursday)
7-day average of new cases per day in MO: 1,178.14 (-322.43 from last Thursday)
Counties with the highest per capita rates (per 100,000) of new cases per day this past week:
Sullivan (54.28 per 100,000), Scotland (49.58), Mercer (46.79), Henry (43.98), Atchison (43.37), Dent (43.31), and Ripley (41.73)
Total deaths in MO: 12,651 (+140 from last Thursday)
7-day average of new deaths per day in MO: 20 (+1.57 from last Thursday)
Percent of all Missourians initiating vaccination: at least 50% (+1% from last Thursday)
Percent of all Missourians completing vaccination: at least 45% (+1% from last Thursday)
Case and mortality numbers are current as of Wednesday, October 20th. Vaccination numbers are current as of Thursday, October 21st. Additional statistics, maps, and plots are available on my COVID-19 tracking site.
Trends in the Past Week
First, I want to share the good news - we have continued signs of improvement at the state, regional, and metro levels. Cases are nearing a return to fewer than 1,000 new cases per day, a place we were last at in early July. I anticipate hitting this mark in the next couple of days if current trends hold. This decline reflects declines in the three “meso” regions, which now are below 20 new cases per 100,000 residents per day.
The same pattern is playing out at the metro level, though two metros - Cape Girardeau and Columbia - have seven-day averages that remain above 20 new cases per 100,000 residents. However, our other metros have followed the broader trend and have seven-day averages under that 20 new case mark.
Alongside these trends, hospitalizations are falling across the board as well. However, they are notably high in Cape Girardeau, the only metro where more than ten percent of the hospitalizations are due to COVID-19 currently.
Finally, mortality is falling as well. By the end of September, the seven-day average of deaths had dropped by half from its peak at the end of August. I anticipate that the most recent week or two will be revised upward over the next couple of weeks, but this remains another positive data point to consider.
At the same time, however, we see a growing list of counties experiencing a resurgence of new cases. Last week, only three counties had per capita rates of new cases greater than 40 per 100,000 residents. This week, there are seven. These high rates of new cases appear throughout Northern, West Central, and Southeastern Missouri.
In Northern Missouri, you can see the trend in both Sullivan and Mercer counties, which have the first and third highest rates of new cases right now in Missouri. In each case, rates are now about five times higher than a week to two weeks ago.
Though slightly less extreme, the same pattern is visible in Henry, Johnson, and Vernon counties. None of these three jurisdictions has climbed as high as the counties above relative to their recent rates, but the upswings are still notable.
The challenging question, for which is there is no answer right now, is whether these are momentary challenges. So far, only Scotland County has seen a significant upswing. The seven-day average receded, but in the last couple of days turned upward again.
The other counties that I highlighted may not see spikes like Scotland. They also might, however. We just do not know yet. What we do know is that vaccination rates are slowing dramatically. The top-line seven-day average you can see on the legend below, just 6.84 vaccinations per 1,000 people, is meager. Adding newly vaccinated individuals to the rolls is crucial to ensure that the blips above do not seed a renewed surge in new cases statewide.
