Weekly COVID-19 Round-up - 12/04/20
River City Data No. 9
Tonight’s newsletter is the first since November 20th. In it, I give an update on all of the uncertainty in COVID data right now, break down the latest numbers, and share my interview with Jessica Piper, a teacher in Northwest Missouri who is also running for Missouri House District 1 in 2022.
- Chris
COVID-19 by the Numbers
Total cases in MO: 325,519 (+21,285 from last Friday)
7-day average of new cases per day in MO: 3,527.71 (-517.57 from last Friday)
Counties with the highest per capita rates of new cases per day this past week:
Reynolds (97.27 per 100,000), Buchanan (96.87), Jefferson (93.21), Nodaway (88.07), Gentry (87.88), and Madison (87.79)
Total deaths in MO: 4,274 (+331 from last Friday)
7-day average of new deaths per day in MO: 48.86 (+10.57 from last Friday)
These numbers are current as of Thursday, December 3rd. Additional statistics, maps, and plots are available on my COVID-19 tracking site.
Summary for the Week Ending December 4th
This week's theme is uncertainty. Since mid-November, we've seen a broad decline in the number of new COVID-19 cases identified in Missouri. Before Thanksgiving, our testing environment had been pretty stable since early September. However, after the holiday, we've reported far fewer tests (so far). This is a critical piece of context for understanding the decline we're seeing:
I have greater confidence in the pre-Thanksgiving trend. Our 7-day averages dropped by about 800 new cases per day on average (from a peak of nearly 5200 to about 4400). I have far less confidence in the drop afterward, representing a decline of about 1000 new cases per day on average (from about 4400 to about 3400). As of tonight, my gut check is that we did see a decline in new cases being identified through the beginning of Thanksgiving week.
Since then, however, I have suspected that our lower numbers resulted from testing and reporting slowdowns. The data reporting process is a very human one: everything from getting an appointment to the way testing is done is affected by things other than transmission. Results are compiled and then filter into reporting systems at their own pace. Therefore, our case data reflect a lot of different processes, all of which slow down when weekends and holidays come up. This is one key piece of uncertainty that we have faced consistently during the pandemic.
Yesterday's new case number reported by the New York Times, 4108, represents a return towards the numbers we saw before Thanksgiving. We'll have to see if this trend continues and if we see a substantial bump in transmission due to Thanksgiving itself. This is another piece of uncertainty. We don't know the effect of holiday gatherings yet, and may not have a sense of it for another week.
In a few weeks, during the Christmas-New Years period, we're going to face another similar period of uncertainty both with the effect of holiday gatherings and the impact of reporting slowdowns. All of this to say - I think there is more uncertainty right now than at any point recently. That uncertainty will persist for at least another 5 weeks until we have New Year's Day well behind us.
Regardless of what the "real" transmission picture looks like right now, we are facing two significant warning signs. The first is in St. Louis hospitals, where patient numbers have climbed to about 1,000 in-patients on average when we take the sum of confirmed and suspected cases. These numbers are well above where they were in the spring:
We're also seeing rising ICU rates and increasing numbers of patients on ventilators. These numbers are about equivalent to where they were in the spring:
Each lags the last - hospitalizations lag new cases, ICU stays lag hospitalizations, and patients being placed on ventilators lag ICU numbers. Mortality numbers lag behind all of this, and our 7-day average of deaths reported is the highest it has ever been in Missouri right now. This is our second serious warning sign:
So, please do not put too much stock in declining numbers. They may not be genuine declines, and even if they are, it won't matter if Thanksgiving drove cases up substantially (and we just don't know it yet). Hospitalizations have climbed to record levels, and mortality is rising—all reasons not to take refuge in the declines since Thanksgiving day.
In the Weeds
As we move further away from Election Day, we’re starting to get more retrospective reporting on polling. The narrative after November 3rd was that the polls were wrong. With states certifying their results, we’re learning that they actually were not as wrong as they first appeared and were within a pretty typical polling error. That said, polls did tend to underestimate President Trump’s support. FiveThirtyEight had a great article right before Thanksgiving on social alienation, polling, and civic life that may provide some insight into why polls missed in the way that they did.
Weekly Interview
This week’s interview is with Jessica Piper, a full-time high school English teacher in Northwest Missouri. She received a BA in English from the University of Arkansas and an MA in Teaching from the University of Arkansas at Monticello. Jessica frequently studies with the National Endowment for the Humanities on the subject of slavery and resistance. She is also a 2022 candidate for House District 1.
CP: Schools and COVID-19 are obviously a big topic in Missouri. Can you take us inside a classroom and describe how COVID-19 has changed teaching in a practical sense?
JP: There have been massive changes to classrooms across the state since March when schools were closed. My school opened [for face-to-face instruction] in August, but went to a hybrid mode when administrators learned that full classrooms were unsustainable with viral spread. I think our model is working well - we have an A and B day so my classes are filled with only half of my students on any given day. We utilize an online program for instruction on off-days and students without internet connections were supplied with a hot-spot. Practically, this was a difficult scenario in the beginning, but has become easier and more effective each week. My classes are on pace to finish the curriculum like any other year. The biggest difference in not seeing my student’s faces and them not seeing mine - it makes engaging in discussion less effective. Masks are what keep us safe though and it is a trade-off I’m willing to make to be able to stay in school.
CP: Do you have longterm concerns about how COVID has affected student learning?
JP: I do have concerns. I know that depression rates are up and students aren’t able to connect with peers in many schools. I also know that while I am on pace to finish my mandated curriculum, I can’t teach it the way I normally would. Socratic Seminars are difficult and peer work groups cannot happen while socially distanced. It’s hard on kids to sit away from their peers and not be able to complete engaging group projects. That part breaks my heart - we are missing out on the “fun” part of learning, but it is the only way to stay safe. I’m not as concerned as others about losing a year of instruction - teachers are trained to meet kids where they are, but they need to be safe first.
CP: What about teaching as a profession - do you have long term concerns about the effect COVID will have on teachers themselves?
JP: I have so many concerns about the effects of the pandemic on teaching. My colleagues are tired and overwhelmed--they have been asked to teach online and in-person. Some have been pushed into classrooms that aren’t safe and others have been made “essential employees” without the benefit of hazard pay or PPE to protect themselves. I know that for me, it’s draining to teach in multiple modes, while also needing to be available day and night. The passion that most of us have for our profession is rooted in support from the community, and in my case, my absolute love for my subject and my students. When we are asked to do and be everything and fail, we are often publicly berated for that failure. I witnessed one of the best educators I’ve ever known turn in her resignation because her district refused to institute a mask mandate. I’ve heard many of my colleagues say that this is their last year. I am incredibly sad to know that the pandemic and the failures of some administrations to support their teachers will leave a hole in our schools that may never be patched. Decades of experience will walk out the doors in May and never return.
CP: You’ve recently announced you’re running for office - did COVID play a role in that decision at all?
JP: Yes, well the failure of so many legislators and the Governor on many issues had me thinking of running, but the failed COVID response, or lack of a response, forced my hand. I cannot in good conscience sit back while Representatives do nothing while my neighbors are sickened. The first principal I ever worked for contracted COVID and died. The Governor has refused a state-wide mandate leaving local governments and school districts in a lurch. There are Missouri legislators denying the effectiveness of masks and falsely claiming that hospitals are not at capacity. I see the outrageous statements that some Missouri Representatives make and I am numb at this point. They lie outright with no regard for public health or the lives of their constituents. It’s a disgrace and I have to do something to help. I’m running for House District 1 in NWMO for these reasons. I feel obligated at this point.
CP: What is something giving you hope right now in terms of COVID-19?
JP: The vaccine. I am hopeful that it is effective and widespread. I know pandemic fatigue is real and with every week, we get closer to a vaccine but see more sick and dead Missourians. I am eternally hopeful though - I believe in community and my neighbors. I believe that though we’ve seen an incredible amount of disinformation, we can get through this together. The divisiveness of the last four years have damaged our country and state but hope is real and love is concrete and Missouri can overcome if we are all rowing the boat in the same direction. Let’s do that.