Weekly COVID-19 Round-up - 4/22/21
River City Data No. 28
Tonight’s newsletter is very brief because of yet another data issue here in Missouri. I’ll walk through what happened below and provide a brief update on some concerning patterns in vaccinations. Hoping to be back next week with a better (and more positive) data picture! - Chris
COVID-19 by the Numbers
Percent of people initiating vaccination: 35% (+2% from last Thursday)
Percent of people completing vaccination: 25% (+3% from last Thursday)
Vaccination numbers are current as of Thursday, April 22nd. Additional statistics, maps, and plots are available on my COVID-19 tracking site.
Data Problems in the Past Week
The reason I have little data to share this week is that Missouri’s DHSS announced this past Saturday that they had experienced yet another data failure. This time, it involved a process we call “de-duplication.” If individuals begin to experience symptoms or are tested as part of some requirement (for work, school, or something else), they may first receive a “rapid” Antigen test. These take as little as fifteen minutes to complete and have been heavily used in some counties in Missouri. If they test positive, these same individuals may receive a follow-up PCR test to confirm their COVID-19 infection.
Now that Missouri reports both Antigen and PCR positive case counts by county, de-duplication is a critical process. It ensures that an individual with both a positive Antigen test and a positive PCR test is not double-counted.
On Saturday, DHSS announced that they had failed to properly de-duplicate their data, resulting in approximately 11,500 too many cases included in counts. These were removed from their dashboard on Saturday. Since my data provider, the New York Times, sources some of their data directly from counties, I only experienced a negative count of 7,100 new cases on Saturday.
The result is that, for most counties in Missouri, we have a seven-day average of new cases that is less than zero, and so they are marked as “NA” on my map below. For these counties, we do not have a clear picture of their new case trends.
On this coming Saturday, I should be able to restore my maps and update my seven-day average plots to smooth out this sudden drop in new cases. At that point, we will have a picture of where COVID-19 cases are in Missouri again.
This could not have come at a worse time, as Illinois experienced a surge in new cases, especially around the Peoria area.
Tracking these changes is critical for assessing whether new varients are causing spikes in new cases in Missouri, too. We have therefore lost some of our situational awareness of how the pandemic is unfolding right now.
Vaccination Trends in the Past Week
Unlike our case data, I have been able to continue monitoring vaccination data this week. On my map of the latest vaccination rates, we see the same focal areas as before - St. Louis, Kansas City, Columbia, and Springfield. However, some of the more rural counties highlighted last week are seeing their vaccination rates drop.
I do have a bit of new data this week to share, which are the rates of completed vaccinations in addition to initiated vaccinations by race. Until now, I only had data on initiated vaccinations. When we compare the two, an interesting pattern emerges. As vaccinations have opened to the general public, Latinos now have a higher vaccination rate than white residents, and the rate of vaccination initiation among Asians has jumped significantly.
The slower growth in vaccination rates for white residents is worrying, especially given the state’s generally conservative electorate and relatively high numbers of evangelical protestants - these communities are prime sources of resistance to vaccinations.
It is also worth watching the vaccination rate for African Americans closely. The mass vaccination center in St. Louis has had underwhelming demand, and I remain concerned that not enough is being done to reach the communities hardest hit by the pandemic in the St. Louis area.
Finally, I am worried that we are experiencing a deceleration in vaccinations here. Our rate of vaccination initiation this week was half what it was last week - our totals only grew by 2% this week. This is a national trend and one that will have implications for Missouri to continue to re-open safely this summer.
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