Weekly COVID-19 Round-up - 6/3/21
River City Data No. 34
My newsletter tonight has a breakdown of our recent numbers, including a trio of counties with the worst rates of new cases in the entire United States, continued declines in vaccinations, and the presence of the variant from India. The “Into the Weeds” section also makes a return, highlighting research about the effectiveness of certain public health measures. - Chris
COVID-19 by the Numbers
Total cases in MO: 616,200 (+2,834 from last Thursday)
7-day average of new cases per day in MO: 404.86 (-46.14 from last Thursday)
Counties with the highest per capita rates (per 100,000) of new cases per day this past week and the only counties with per capita rates over 20:
Putnam (130.54 per 100,000), Livingston (112.76), Linn (87.92), Caldwell (42.63), Grundy (34.15), Lincoln (29.57), Polk (26.72), Chariton (24.61), and Shelby (21.21)
Total deaths in MO: 9,710 (+58 from last Thursday)
7-day average of new deaths per day in MO: 8.29 (-6.29 from last Thursday)
Percent of all Missourians initiating vaccination: at least 37%
Percent of all Missourians completing vaccination: at least 31%
Case and mortality numbers are current as of Wednesday, June 2nd. Vaccination numbers are current as of Thursday, June 3rd. Additional statistics, maps, and plots are available on my COVID-19 tracking site.
Illness Trends in the Past Week
As of yesterday, we are seeing both our statewide 7-day average the number of cases in “outstate” Missouri begin to decline again. However, the “outstate” area continues to make up over half of our new cases daily in Missouri. The size of this bump outstate may appear paradoxical - compared both to our highs in November-January and a prior, early spring bump in late March, rates do not seem so significant.
However, the difference over the past two weeks is the concentration of new cases in a small number of Northern Missouri counties. As of yesterday, these darker purple counties are at the top of the list of county-level 7-day per capita averages in the United States. Putnam County has the highest rate of any U.S. county, and Livingston and Linn were number three and five nationally, respectively. They are also surrounded by other counties that are among the highest within Missouri.
The good news is that rates in these three counties are declining for the time being. The decline in new case rates has been the smallest in Livingston County.
So, stepping back, the overall picture in Missouri may not seem all that severe. However, in Linn, Livingston, and Putnam counties, in particular, we are seeing not just rates at or near all-time highs but rates that are the highest in the United States right now. In that context, looking at the overall picture in Missouri actually understates just how significant the outbreak in Northern Missouri is right now.
Outside of Northern Missouri, there are two other areas to take note of. First, around Springfield, rates in Dallas County have receded. In Polk County, what appeared to be a small decrease has been all but erased over the past few days. Moreover, there have been cases detected in Greene County where the variant infecting individuals is the one from India that caused significant numbers of new cases there. This is absolutely a region of Missouri to watch closely.
The other area to watch closely is Lincoln County, on the northern end of the St. Louis metropolitan area. Rates of new cases there are similar to those in Polk County and are part of a dual spike this spring that Lincoln County has experienced when the rest of the St. Louis metro has not gone through the same pattern.
Vaccination Trends in the Past Week
In Northern Missouri, Polk County, and Lincoln County, these areas of concern are all areas with middling vaccination rates. Lincoln County has the lowest rate in the St. Louis metropolitan area (looking at Missouri counties only). Polk County’s vaccination rates are below Greene’s (where Springfield is), and Putnam County’s rates are similar to Polk’s.
Moreover, vaccination rates across the state continue to fall. While the 7-day vaccination rate seems to look the same as it has the last few weeks, the rates themselves get continually smaller week to week.
So, we have the same overall pattern as we did last week - notable outbreaks of new cases in select, rural areas of Missouri while at the same time rural areas are generally experiencing the lowest vaccination rates in Missouri.
I have a nagging concern about the Ozark Mountains, especially in the area south of the I-44 corridor to the Arkansas border and between Branson on the west and Butler County on the east. This box-like area has had comparatively low rates of COVID-19 infections and the lowest rates of vaccinations. Taken together, this means there are likely lower levels of immunity in these communities than in other parts of Missouri. Combined with limited rural health infrastructure and the documented presence of the variant from India in nearby Greene County, we have all of the ingredients for a severe outbreak of COVID-19 cases.
Into the Weeds
Finally, there is some recent reporting from Vox.com on the effectiveness of social distancing measures. The picture is… complicated. The major conclusion they reach is the United States did not use the early part of the pandemic to buy itself time and invest in the infrastructure we needed to manage what was to come. Those initial social distancing orders did make a difference, researchers have found. However, we did not beef up contact tracing and other public health resources. Many of those investments remain unrealized fifteen months later.
On top of that, I have little confidence that mask mandates and restaurant closures, which we do have evidence supporting their effectiveness, will be implemented in areas of Missouri experiencing outbreaks now or in the future. Overall, then, I have some deep, nagging concerns about the potential for additional outbreaks and our ability to address them in Missouri as we head into both the summer travel season and the return to more “normal” educational modalities in the fall.
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