Weekly COVID-19 Round-up - 9/24/21
River City Data No. 49
I write this week with quite a lot on my mind. My institution, Saint Louis University, has confronted two student deaths by suicide. They occurred just over a week apart. I want to remind folks that if they ever need support, you can reach the National Suicide Hotline twenty-four hours per day, seven days per week at 1-800-273-8255.
At the same time, we are just one death shy of 12,000 reported deaths in Missouri. As I describe below, this tragic milestone comes from surging mortality in August as the Delta variant remained entrenched in many Missouri counties.
I also am reflecting on eighteen months of my COVID-19 work, which I marked today on Twitter. Even if you are not on Twitter, you have been a part of this by subscribing and reading these newsletter summaries of Missouri’s COVID experience. Thank you for subscribing and sharing my work.
Despite the challenging two weeks at work, I feel hopeful tonight about where we are with COVID. Cases are declining across the state, as are hospitalizations. The CDC has approved booster shots for some. More updates on boosters for Moderna and J&J recipients should be coming soon, and I am keeping my fingers crossed that we see approval for 5 to 11 year-olds to get vaccinated next month. I hope we continue to see more positive signs this week. - Chris
COVID-19 by the Numbers
Total cases in MO: 825,827 (+13,721 from last Thursday)
7-day average of new cases per day in MO: 1,960.14 (-424.29 from last Thursday)
Counties with the highest per capita rates (per 100,000) of new cases per day this past week:
Ripley (117.89 per 100,000), Bollinger (102.36), New Madrid (101.06), Scott (89.63), Stoddard (81.32), Knox (79.55), Perry (68.65), Oregon (65.43), and Warren (65.3)
Total deaths in MO: 11,999 (+269 from last Thursday)
7-day average of new deaths per day in MO: 38.43 (+10.14 from last Thursday)
Percent of all Missourians initiating vaccination: at least 48% (no change from last Thursday)
Percent of all Missourians completing vaccination: at least 43% (+1% from last Thursday)
Case and mortality numbers are current as of Thursday, September 23rd. Vaccination numbers are current as of Friday, September 24th. Additional statistics, maps, and plots are available on my COVID-19 tracking site.
Trends in the Past Week
The best news this week is our declining number of new cases statewide. For the first time since July, we see fewer than two thousand new cases per day on average. The declines of about a thousand new cases per day since our most recent peak have primarily come from “Outstate” Missouri.
In contrast, we see a much smaller decline in new cases in the St. Louis area. On the plus side, rates are falling in the two hardest-hit counties - Lincoln and Warren. However, they contribute relatively few total numbers of cases (their high rates reflect, in part, their small populations). The more populous counties are also seeing declines, but they are very, very modest.
Counties like Lincoln, Warren, Franklin, and Jefferson remain the northern edge of a cluster of high rates of new cases that is now, more than ever, centered on the Bootheel.
The good news is that, even in the counties where rates are the highest right now, rates are declining slightly. For example, in the Bootheel, rates are dropping somewhat in every single county over the last few days. This is good news, and I am hopeful that we will see these trends continue over the next week.
However, I am concerned that when we do see declines, we are going to need to wait for a significant number of counties to return to their pre-June baselines. For example, take a look at the Springfield area, where counties have seen significant declines. However, Greene, Taney, Polk, and other counties have plateaued around 20 new cases per 100,000 people per day. This plateau is well above their May levels but far below their peaks during the Delta surge.
We are also getting a clearer sense of the consequences of the Delta surge for Missouri families. The number of deaths reported far outpaces what we saw daily over the spring. Instead, we saw a peak of between 30 and 35 deaths per day on average throughout all of August.
Remember that Missouri shares mortality data very slowly, so the steep decline seen here is likely noise from poor reporting speed. I anticipate that deaths will decline more slowly once we have complete data for September. Also, remember that the deaths identified in the first COVID wave of 2020 are an undercount.
What is especially heartbreaking about these deaths is that many of the recent ones were preventable. A large proportion is likely to be among unvaccinated Missourians based on the reporting we have so far. Had these neighbors chosen to be vaccinated, our mortality rates would be much lower. Even now, after months of pleading for vaccinations and significant increases in illness, there are many counties in Missouri where less than a third of residents are fully vaccinated. While it is excellent news that the CDC has approved booster shots, those will not fundamentally change these lower rates of first-time vaccinated individuals.
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