Weekly COVID-19 Round-up - 4/8/21
River City Data No. 25
Tonight’s newsletter includes my latest round-up of COVID-19 data for Missouri, which is thankfully not affected by reporting issues like it was last week. We have passed a somber milestone on this front that I want to acknowledge - as of yesterday, more than 9,000 Missourians have died from the virus. I also have an update on vaccination progress, and share some updated public polling research from Pew in the “Into the Weeds” section. Finally, I share my interview with Christopher Ave, the Director of Communications for the St. Louis County Department of Public Health. - Chris
COVID-19 by the Numbers
Total cases in MO: 589,364 (+4,153 from last Thursday)
7-day average of new cases per day in MO: 593.29 (-93.29 from last Thursday)
Counties with the highest per capita rates (per 1,000) of new cases per day this past week:
Macon (29.03 per 100,000), Shelby (23.57), Vernon (23.47), Dade (22.59), Jefferson (20.02), Madison (19.9), Ripley (19.82), and Crawford (19.42)
Total deaths in MO: 9,001 (+24 from last Thursday)
7-day average of new deaths per day in MO: 3.43 (-8.71 from last Thursday)
Percent of people initiating vaccination: 30% (+4% from last Thursday)
Percent of people completing vaccination: 19% (+3% from last Thursday)
Case and mortality numbers are current as of Wednesday, April 7th. Vaccination numbers are current as of Thursday, April 8th. Additional statistics, maps, and plots are available on my COVID-19 tracking site.
Illness Trends in the Past Week
Last week, our data were substantially affected by a large “dump” of older cases that Illinois reported to Missouri. This created what appeared to be a significant cluster of new cases in Northeastern Missouri. As you can see from the map below, we have returned to expected case counts around Missouri.
What remains, however, is a less extreme cluster of cases focused on Macon, Randolph, and Shelby counties. Macon and Shelby, in particular, have the highest rates of new cases in Missouri right now. There are also a handful of cases in Southwest Missouri (Vernon and Dade counties) and scattered on the fringes of the Ozark Mountains. It is these rural counties that have the highest rates of new cases right now in Missouri.
Another significant cluster of cases is around the City of St Louis. The worst rates are in the exurban and rural counties both to the northwest (Lincoln, St. Charles, and Warren counties) and south (Jefferson County). So, even within the metropolitan area, it is still the rural areas affected the most.
Warren County is not featured on this plot but is also among the counties to keep an eye on in the Missouri side of the St. Louis metropolitan area. If we dig into ZIP code-level data, Lincoln County and portions of Jefferson County stand out.
There are also pockets of both St. Louis City and County that are showing higher rates of new cases. These include northern parts of St. Louis County, Downtown St. Louis City, and portions of the southwest part of the City.
Alongside this growing number of cases, I am watching hospitalizations in the St. Louis area creep upward as well. The number of hospitalized cases has been growing day-over-day over the past week, though it declined slightly today. The 7-day average has not changed much yet, but this is something I am closely watching for.
Vaccination Trends in the Past Week
Vaccinations are notably shifting into metropolitan areas across Missouri. The highest rates of new vaccinations are concentrated in both the St. Louis and Kansas City metros. The same pattern is appearing around the Columbia, Jefferson City, and Springfield metros. Note, however, that the City of St. Louis itself is lagging behind other counties in the St. Louis area.
On the flip side, rates of new vaccinations are the lowest in Northern and Northeastern Missouri as well as in the Ozarks and parts of the Bootheel. The areas in the Ozarks (MSHP Districts I and G) and Northeastern Missouri (District B) do not just have low rates at the county level, but they also are lagging well behind at the district level as well.
These areas around the Ozark Mountains have continually been among the lowest in Missouri in terms of vaccinations. This is reflected in the rates of completed vaccinations.
Note that District B, which is currently experiencing low rates of new vaccinations, does not have a similar position. Earlier this year, this region of Missouri was among those that had consistently high rates of vaccinations.
In the Weeds
Longtime readers of River City Data (if I can say that - it has been over six months now!) may recall that I am particularly interested in the challenges of public polling, especially around elections in the United States. I am not the only one with this interest, of course, and the folks at Pew Research have just put out new data on the limitations pollsters experienced in the last five years. It is a long, detailed look at what they have seen in terms of participation and how they believe it affects their work.
Weekly Interview
Christopher Ave is a career communicator, first as a journalist and now as the director of communications for the St. Louis County Department of Public Health. He spent three decades working for newspapers across the country, ending with an 11-year stint as political and national editor of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. He also teaches communication at Saint Louis University, and he is an avid Beatle-maniac and a long-suffering Mizzou Tigers grad/fan. He and his family live in Kirkwood.
CP: It's been just over a year since Missouri’s first COVID-19 case was identified in St. Louis County. What is keeping you going right now?
CA: The importance of the work and the dedication of my colleagues keep me going.
CP: What are some of the responsibilities you’ve had to manage specific to the County’s COVID-19 response?
CA: Together with top leadership, I direct communications efforts of the St. Louis County Department of Public Health. We have communicated via press conferences, news releases, media interviews, paid advertising, videos, social media messaging and more. In all that we do, we try to articulate how important it is to take action to stay safe: wear masks in public, avoid crowds, wash your hands and, of course, get vaccinated when your turn comes. We also try to explain that key roles of public health in the current crisis include removing barriers to care and serving the most vulnerable among us.
CP: What do you think the biggest successes have been for St. Louis County’s response?
CA: The County has a phenomenal track record of providing COVID-19 care, including testing, protective equipment, vaccinations and information. We have distributed more than 4 million pieces of protective equipment (mostly masks) and we have administered more than 85,000 vaccinations. We have built an entire infrastructure nearly out of scratch to care for our 1 million residents through this once-in-a-century pandemic. We have also built and strengthened partnerships not only with other health organizations but with businesses, other governments and community organizations. We have had great success educating the public about the importance of COVID-19 protocols and done much to share facts about the vaccines.
CP: What about the biggest challenges?
CA: As supply of vaccine increases here and elsewhere, the challenge that looms is to equip our residents – especially in vulnerable and vaccine-hesitant communities – with the facts they need to make the best decisions for themselves and their families about getting vaccinated. There is so much disinformation, political subterfuge and outright ignorance out there. We are doing what we can to combat all that with factual, scientific information. It’s not so much our job to talk people into getting a vaccine as it is to arm them with solid, unbiased knowledge about the vaccines, their effectiveness and their safety. We also must redouble our efforts to remove all barriers to vaccination, particularly those involving poverty, historical patterns of racism, mobility, language and other societal challenges.
CP: Both in Missouri and across the US, public health administrators have been besieged with criticism so biting we’re seeing people, especially women, leave public health work altogether. Have you seen those pressures in St. Louis County? How have you managed that criticism?
CA: We’ve certainly seen the fear, anger and passion that, understandably, many in the public are experiencing. We in public health are also members of the community. We understand what it means to be harmed by the pandemic and ready for everything to return to normal. But we all need to understand that the most effective way to return to something like normal is to defeat COVID-19. There are no shortcuts here.
CP: Finally, what is giving you hope right now in terms of where we are at with COVID?
CA: Hope spills from the dedication of so many in fighting COVID-19. Hope rushes in along with doses of vaccine. Hope springs out of our collective commitment to do what’s necessary to protect ourselves and, just as importantly, protect others, including our loved ones and our neighbors.
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